Natural Disasters with respect to Climate Change.

Why should we not care about global warming and climate change? There is a rip tide of information from environmental sensationalists, to critics and ambivalent middlemen prevailing on this question. Scare mongers suggest global warming will end humanity and the world as we know it. Critics assert that there is some truth to climate change but argue with alarmists who believe the changes are apocalyptical. Conversely, environmentalists believe climate change occurs gradually and can lead to the decimation of the planet and its inhabitants if care or preventative measures are not undertaken. Some environmentalists claim that proof lies in yearly seasonal changes and the advent of natural disasters, which not only threaten humanity but are exacerbated by human indifference to the environment. For these environmentalists the connection between natural disasters and climate change substantiates the need to be concerned. With so many differing perspectives the middleman continues to be ambivalent wondering which argument is the truth.

One apparent truth is that no one seems to know the right answer but it is important to keep on searching for accurate facts. If we are confused, then we need more information to understand climate change and its possible influences. On this website visitors are encouraged to draw their own conclusions on the connection between climate change and natural disasters, and whether warnings are opportunistic or justifiable.

Distinctions between natural disasters and hazards, climate change and global warming.

Before your perusal, we’d like to share the distinctions between natural disasters and hazards, as well as climate change and global warming.

According to UNESCO, natural hazards are “naturally-occurring physical phenomena caused either by rapid or slow onset events having atmospheric, geologic and hydrologic origins on solar, global, regional, national and local scales. They include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, tsunamis, floods and drought. Natural disasters are the consequences or effects of natural hazards. They represent a serious breakdown in sustainability and disruption of economic and social progress” (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization [UNESCO], n.d). “Climate change refers to any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer). Global warming is an average increase in the temperature of the atmosphere near the Earth's surface and in the troposphere, which can contribute to changes in global climate patterns. Global warming and climate change can be caused by a variety of factors, both natural and human-induced” (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], 2008). Global warming, climate change and natural disasters share the impacts of human interference or involvement as a commonality. If we remain uncertain about what affects the environment, we will not gain clarity on what affects the quality of our livelihood and that of generations to come. Thank you for visiting our site and we hope you find the information offered valuable and informative.

References

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. (n.d). Natural disaster reduction. Retrieved August 3, 2008, from http://www.unesco.org/science/disaster/about_disaster.shtml.

U.S.Environmental Protection Agency. (2008). Climate Change. Retrieved August 3, 2008, from http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/fq/science.html.

CYCLONES

CYCLONES
A. Operational Definition

A cyclone is an intense vortex or whirl of air in the atmosphere characterized by very strong, rotating winds moving in an anti-clockwise direction in the Northern Hemisphere and in a clockwise direction in the Southern Hemisphere. A cyclonic storm has wind speeds of 62 kmph and above. The central calm core of the storm is called the "Eye". The diameter of the eye varies between 30 and 50 km and is a region free of clouds with light winds. Surrounding this calm and clear eye is the "Wall Cloud Region" of the storm typified by thick clouds with torrential rain, thunder and lightning. Veering away from the Wall Cloud Region the wind speed gradually decreases, however in severe cyclonic storms, wind speeds of 50 to 60 kmph can occur at a distance of 600 km from the storm centre.
In India, cyclones affect both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The life span of a severe cyclonic storm in the Indian seas averages about 4 days from its initiation to the time it moves inland. The disastrous effects of cyclones include sea water inundating low lying coasts, loss of human life and live-stock, and wind damage to property. The oldest and the worst cyclone on record is that of October 1737 which hit Calcutta and took a toll of 300,000 lives in the deltaic region. It was accompanied by a 12 metre high surge and a concurrent violent earthquake.
Risk assessment of cyclones is integral for the success of safety measures and to understand the nature of past and potential cyclonic events. The website of the National Institute of Disaster Management of India reports one preventive measure as the preparation of annual hazard maps. Other measures include analyses of climatologic records to determine the frequencies, intensities and locations of tropical cyclones with respect to climate change and global warming.

Multiple tropical cyclones in the southern Indian Ocean.

B. Intensity and Frequency and Relationship to Climate Change
Dr Geoff Love is an Australian Director of Meteorology. He has submitted research to the World Meteorological Organization's Commission for Atmospheric Sciences entitled a "Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change". This paper reaffirms the finding of a 1998 study saying that any change in the frequency of tropical cyclones (hurricanes/typhoons) resulting from climate change is inconclusive due to untenable evidence and limitations within technological surveillance. The evidence that does exist indicates little or no change to the frequency of cyclones globally.
His paper also implies that the scientific community is "deeply divided" on recent studies, which suggest a substantial increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones (hurricanes/typhoons) within the past 50 years in relation to climatic changes. Some researchers believe climatology is too inconsistent to draw the aforementioned conclusion since changes in equipment and methods vary unreliably over time. The panel says it cannot come to a definitive conclusion in this "hotly debated area" and recognizes that further research is needed.

References

[1] http://www.imdmumbai.gov.in/cycdisasters.htm
[2] http://www.gsdma.org/pdf/CY_Prp.pdf
[3] http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/ho/20060220.shtml
[4] http://www.bom.gov.au/info/CAS-statement.pdf

FLOODS

FLOODS

A. Operational Definition

The term flood refers to an excess accumulation of water across a land surface, which results when water rises or flows over land not normally submerged.
(Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 2004).This phenomenon occurs most commonly when natural watercourses do not have the capacity to convey excess water from heavy rainfall as is the case in monsoon areas. They can also result from other phenomenon such as intense thunderstorms, tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions as well as dam breakage and snowmelt.
Flood events materialize from the accumulation of rainwater in poorly-drained environments, as slow-onset riverine floods, rapid-onset flash floods, and as coastal floods caused by tidal and wave extremes. Inland and coastal flooding may also be associated with windstorm events. Floods also vary greatly in magnitude and impact, velocity of flow and speed of onset, spatial extent, duration and seasonality. The risk of flooding depends on the intensity and duration of rainfall, the capacity of the watercourses to convey runoff, and the saturation of soil.
A flood event that has severe consequences (variously defined) may be termed a flood disaster, and the human impact of flood disasters is concentrated disproportionately in developing countries. Floods are natural phenomena which can induce both positive and negative effects. On the positive side, floods irrigate ecosystems suffering from prolonged drought and help in fertilizing nutrient deficient soil. Conversely, as a natural disaster floods endanger mankind and cause damage worth millions of dollars every year to buildings, infrastructure and businesses, destroys agricultural land and crops, and affects the health of communities.
Several measures are being advocated and implemented to protect land and communities from floods including the recreation of the natural course of rivers, the building of dams and hazard conscious usage of flood-prone land.

Location map, year 2007
Major Floods reported by news services and satellite data observation Updated January 5, 2008 Base image from NASA/JPL


B. Intensity and Frequency and Relationship to Climate Change

Over the years, warning systems, dams and levees have been immensely improved to enhance protection against floods. However, some protective measure can only be achieved at great cost and often at the expense of agricultural productivity thereby limiting the productive use of flood-prone land, which poses a problem especially in poorer, developing countries. Though protective measures have evolved, the number of floods, their devastating strength as well as the loss of life continue to steadily increase.
While it remains unclear whether frequency is related to climate change, there is however more evidence emerging on the risks of inland and coastal flooding. (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 2004) Information on trends in recent flood events is inconclusive, but global trends in sea level and temperature now provide strong evidence connecting floods to climate change. The weight of international scientific opinion has swung decisively towards the perspective that a process of anthropogenically-forced global climate change is now under way, over and above normal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, the annual average of global near-surface temperatures are predicted to rise between 1.4°C and 5.8°C causing an increase in flood hazards in some areas due to sea level rises, changes in seasonal precipitation and the pattern of wind storms. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) thus predicts that climate change is likely to cause an increase in flood hazards in many areas of the world especially in low-lying coastal sites or in zones that currently experience heavy rainfall.
One of the problems for attributing a causal link between flood trends and climate change is that flood dynamics may have multiple social, technical and environmental drivers. For instance, alterations in land cover and urbanization influence the water absorption capacities of land surfaces, thereby exacerbating potential flooding from heavy rainfall. Moreover, the loss of wetlands, population growth and settlement pattern combine to form cumulative trends in land use change that might be associated with flood trends at a regional and global scale. (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 2004)

References

1. Floods, health and climate change: a strategic review“, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, working paper 63, 2004



Olbernhau: The Flood 2002 in Germany

TORNADOES

Running head: TORNADOES AND CLIMATE CHANGE.

A Operational Definition

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, 1992) defines the tornado “as a violently rotating column of air extending from a thunderstorm to the ground.” It is characterized with wind speeds averaging 30 to 70 mphs, occasionally greater than 250 mph with trajectories 50 miles and beyond in distance (NOAA, 1992). According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC, 2008), these phenomena are not confined to a specific region and have occurred within several geographic locations with the exception of Antarctica.

Research has evidenced that:
the middle latitudes between 30° and 50° North or South, provide the most favorable environment for tornadogenesis. This is the region where cold, polar air meets against warmer, subtropical air often generating convective precipitation along the collision boundaries. In addition, air in the mid-latitudes often flows at different speeds and directions at different levels of the troposphere, facilitating the development of rotation within a storm cell…as a result of the large number of convective storms and the favorable environment, the odds are increased that some of these storms will produce tornadoes. (NCDC, 2008)
This convergence of cold and warm fronts induces the condensation needed to create funnel shaped cumulonimbus clouds typical of severe convection thunderstorms known as super cells. The convective storms or super cells then provide the precipitation and the warmth needed in the development and the mobilization of a tornado. Figure 1. illustrates the development of a tornado.
Tornadoes vary in their genesis. Tornadoes generated by thunderstorms may occur over land or water. For instance in the United States, land born tornadoes occur along the anterior range of the “Rocky Mountains, the Plains, and the Western States” (NOAA, 1992). Such tornadic events may not appear visible, but then transition to a grey, brown or red color when dust and debris are enveloped. Tornadoes that develop over water are termed waterspouts, tending to be weaker and ubiquitous to the Gulf Coast (NOAA, 1992). Waterspouts can migrate on to continents to become inland tornadoes anteceded by thunderstorms and accompanied with flash floods, lightening, and hail (NCDC, 2008).

1) Before thunderstorms develop, a change in wind direction and an increase in wind speed with increasing height creates an invisible, horizontal spinning effect in the lower atmosphere.



2)Rising air within the thunderstorm updraft tilts the rotating air from horizontal to vertical.


3) An area of rotation, 2-6 miles wide, now extends through much of the storm. Most strong and violent tornadoes form within this area of strong rotation.



4) Woodward OK (Ron Przybylinski)
A lower cloud base in the center of the photograph identifies an area of rotation known as a rotating wall cloud. This area is often nearly rain-free. Note rain in the background.



5) Woodward OK (Ron Przybylinski)
Moments later a strong tornado develops in this area. Softball-size hail and damaging "straight-line" winds also occurred with this storm.

Source:The Development of a Tornado (NOAA, 1992)

B Intensity and Frequency

Tornadoes are perennial but predominate during March, April and May as well as during the summer in southern and northern states respectively in the US. During the afternoon, specifically from 3-9pm there is increased probability for convective thunderstorms, which increases the likelihood for tornadic activity. The southern states of the U.S. such as “central Texas, northward to northern Iowa, and from central Kansas and Nebraska east to western Ohio” dubbed Tornado Alley, and Gulf states called Dixie Alley, for example Louisiana and Mississippi in the U.S. have characteristically high occurrences of afternoon convective storms (NCDC, 2008). The U.S has the highest occurrence of tornadoes bearing 77% of global tornadic activity as a result of afternoon convective conditions prime for the development of severe, large-scale thunderstorms (NCDC, 2008). Tornado intensity and speed are measured using the enhanced Fujita Scale form EF0 to EF5; the former being the lowest and slowest whilst the latter is the strongest and fastest ranking. Figure 2 provides insight into the attributes and strengths of tornadoes (NOAA, 1992).

Weak Tornadoes
69% of all tornadoes
Less than 5% of tornado deaths
Lifetime 1-10+ minutes
Winds less than 110 mph







Strong Tornadoes 29% of all tornadoes
Nearly 30% of all tornado deaths May last 20 minutes or longer
Winds 110-205 mph









Violent Tornadoes
Only 2% of all tornadoes 70% of all tornado deaths
Lifetime can exceed 1 hour
(NOAA, 1992)






C Relationship to climate change

There seems to not be a tenable correlation between tornadoes and climate change. Research posits that the influence of El Nino may increase the frequency and magnitude of tornadic activity, however empirical support has been inadequate in buttressing these suppositions. Instead, some critics declare attempts to link tornadoes to climate change as scare tactics when these phenomena result from mother nature. Naturally, when warm and cold air masses converge during jet stream or front collisions, warm air is trapped. When large masses of warm air are retained, the eventual release of the imprisoned air lends to the maturity of convective storms which potentiate the occurrence of tornadoes (“Tornadoes,” 2003).

Supporters of the relationship between tornadoes, global warming and climate change suggest that elevated levels of carbon dioxide not only cause higher temperatures but also cause the entrapment of warm air masses in the atmosphere. In the El Nino effect, higher temperatures mean warmer oceanic currents warming the atmosphere for protracted time periods, thus facilitating conditions for thunderstorm and tornado development. The belief is that global warming exacerbates natural phenomenon to result in the increasing frequency and magnitude of tornadic activity. However, although there have been increased reports of tornadoes, the NCDC (2008) declares that “there has been little trend in the frequency of the strongest tornadoes over the past 55 years.” In other words although theories persist, there currently is inferior validation for the increased magnitude and frequency of tornadic disasters as a result of climatic change during the past years till present.

References

National Climatic Data Center. (2008). U.S. Tornado Climatology. Retrieved July 22, 2008 from http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/tornadoes.html

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (1992). Tornadoes…world’s most violent storm. Retrieved July 21, 2008, from http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/edu/safety/tornadoguide.html

(2003). Record number of tornadoes tied to global warming. Retrieved July 21, 2008, from http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/?id=2701

EARTHQUAKES

EARTHQUAKES

A. Operational Definition

An earthquake is the result of a sudden release of energy in the Earth's crust that creates seismic waves. Earthquakes are recorded with a seismometer, also known as a seismograph. The magnitude of an earthquake is measured on the Richter scale with magnitude 3 or lower being mostly imperceptible, and magnitude 7 causing serious damage over large areas.
In its most generic sense, the word earthquake is used to describe any seismic event—whether a natural phenomenon or an event caused by humans—that generates seismic waves. Earthquakes are caused mostly by the rupture of geological faults, and huge amounts of gas migration mainly methane deep within the earth, but also by volcanic activity, landslides, mine blasts, and nuclear experiments.
Minor earthquakes occur nearly constantly around the world in places like California and Alaska in the U.S., as well as in Chile, Peru, Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan, the Azores in Portugal, Turkey, New Zealand, Greece, Italy, and Japan.[5] Larger earthquakes occur less frequently, for instance the recurrence rates for an earthquake of 3.7 - 4.6 happens every year, for an earthquake of 4.7 - 5.5 every 10 years, and an earthquake of 5.6 or more every 100 years.

B. Intensity and Frequency and Relationship to Climate Change

Playing the devil’s advocate are researchers countering environmental alarmists’ claims that most or all natural disasters are integrally related to climate change. According to critics, earthquakes appear as geographic activities independent of climate change. Conversely, environmentalists argue that these researchers should be less environmentally myopic. The latter claim research evidences a relationship between climate change and earthquakes.

There are two types of earthquakes namely tectonic earthquakes and glacial earthquakes. The former is more intrinsic to the lithosphere while the latter is influenced by global climate change. For instance in\ Greenland, the rise of seismic activity linked to the movement of glaciers may be a response to global warming.

C. References:

[1] http://climatechangenews.blogspot.com/2006/03/glacial-earthquakes-point-to-rising.html

HEATWAVES

Heat Waves
A Operational Definition
i. Defining the phenomenon across the globe/specific to your region.
A heat wave is “…an extended period of unusually high atmosphere-related heat, which causes temporary modifications in lifestyle and has adverse health consequences for the affected population (Balafoutis, 2008)

ii. Differentiation from a natural hazard and what makes it a natural disaster.
Heat waves not only harm nature with extreme high temperatures, but also have numerous socio-economic effects. For instance in Chile, heat waves set back agricultural productivity by damaging crops and terrain thereby endangering the livelihood of people.

iii. Development, Intensity and Frequency
In warm climates during summer there is nothing to protect the air and ground from being heated excessively in high pressure areas without rain or clouds. The ground and air retain heat when large masses of high pressure air are trapped, and this retention of radiation from earth to the atmosphere creates a heat wave. Research has indicated a definite increase in temperatures with records showing that “temperatures in the region over the past century have risen by half a degree to 1.26 degree.” (Chang J, 2007) According to scientists, as temperatures rise, people face greater risk of death from dehydration, heat stroke/exhaustion, [and] heart attack…”(UCSUSA), Heat wave related impacts include poorer air quality, respiratory ailments and the expansion of the desert from Northern Chile towards the central region. In southern Chile, heat waves also incur will less rain- and snowfall.



C Relationship to climate change
vii. Causes of the natural disaster
Advocates of the climate change theory emphasize climate change as the genesis of heat wave disasters. Most researchers however disagree and credit pollution, carbon dioxide emissions, high pressure systems, which “block out cloud systems and rain-producing fronts, dry landscape deficient in moisture” and high humidity as the main agents increasing heat wave related incidents.

References

1) Balafoutis, 2008, “the recent heat waves over Balkans as an indicator of climate change and a signal for new planning decisions”, Department of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Thessaloniki. Page 3

2) Jack Chang, Global warming in Chile threatens industry, water supplies http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/20745.html, McClatchy Newspapers

3) Union of Concerned Scientists http://www.climatechoices.org/impacts_health/index.html,2008

Conclusion

The relationship of natural disasters to climate change is by no means a simplistic argument and evidence in support or against remains inconclusive. We encourage you to not get swept away in a tide of fear, myths or hype but to prudently and earnestly seek insight into an area that affects us all and posterity. Together and with some effort we can make informed conclusions and ingenious solutions.

Sincerely

Christelle Jerry
Jaikar Mohan
Jing Ji
Louise Schellschmidt
Malavika Datar
Mary Abraham Eranackal
Miguel Angel Vejar
Pindong Gu
Steven Kahn
Tazha Sumpter
( Disasters group members)

How Can We Make A Difference?

Each and every individual can make a difference to reduce the impact of Global Warming by following some very simple practical daily life solutions. Please do read on further and you would probably realise that it is actually very simple to make that difference - the positive impact that will make the world a better place to live in. Here are a few daily life solutions:

1) Use the "Off" Switch

Save electricity and reduce global warming by turning off lights when you leave a room, and using only as much light as you need. And remember to turn off your television, video player, stereo and computer when you're not using them.

2) Reduce and Recycle
Reducing your garbage by 25 percent will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 1,000 pounds per year. Recycle aluminum cans, glass bottles, plastic, cardboard and newspapers can reduce your home's carbon dioxide emissions by 850 pounds per year.
3) Don't Give Energy Away
If you caulk and weather-strip around doors and windows to plug up leaks you can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 1,700 pounds per year.
Use less hot water by installing a low flow showerhead and washing clothes in cold or warm water.
Eliminate one trip by car per week by stringing errands together
(savings based on a 5 mile trip to the store)
4) Computers
PCs : configure your computer to shutdown after 1 hour of non-use (Start Menu > Control Panel > Power Options > Power Schemes tab).
5)Diet: Try to eat fruits and vegetasbles that are (1) grown locally (2) in season (3) organic.
6) Other energy efficient choices for your home
Use the energy saver cycle on your dishwasher and only run it when full.
Clean or replace the air filter on your air conditioner.
Install low-flow shower heads to use less hot water.
Caulk and weatherstrip around doors and windows.

References

http://www.fightglobalwarming.com/page.cfm?tagID=267
http://environment.about.com/od/globalwarming/tp/globalwarmtips.htm
http://www.globalwarmingtips.com/
http://www.nwf.org/globalwarmingathome/
http://reference.aol.com/globalwarming/_a/top-12-ways-you-can-reduce-global/20050802173409990001